More than 100 million folks globally now personal an Apple Watch, an adoption milestone Apple surpassed this December, in response to estimated figures compiled by Avalon’s Neil Cybart.
Apple launched its smartwatch in April 2015. Since that point, Cybart’s evaluation suggests the expansion trajectory of the system’s consumer base has been neither fixed nor regular, with the 30 million new those who started sporting an Apple Watch in 2020 practically exceeding the adoption price of customers all through 2015-2017.
Cybart additionally checked out Apple Watch as a share of the iPhone consumer base, which he thought of a superb proxy for the dimensions of the potential Apple Watch market, on condition that an iPhone is required to make use of the watch (with just a few exceptions, comparable to Family Setup). Based on his information, Cybart believes that round 10% of iPhone customers worldwide wore an Apple Watch by the tip of 2020.
Cybart additionally checked out U.S. adoption of Apple Watch particularly:
Since the U.S. has been an Apple Watch stronghold for years, adoption within the nation has trended materially excessive compared to international figures. At the tip of 2020, roughly 35% of iPhone customers within the U.S. have been sporting an Apple Watch. This is a surprisingly sturdy adoption price that ought to function a wake-up name to Apple rivals within the wearables house. Apple Watch turned Fitbit from a family name because the wearables trade chief into an organization that may ultimately be seen as an asterisk when the wearables story is retold to future generations.
Overall, Cybart believes the figures present that Apple Watch is Apple’s fourth-largest put in base behind the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, and at the present gross sales trajectory will surpass the Mac put in base in 2022.
Looking additional forward, Cybart believes there’s “nothing stopping much larger adoption over time,” and predicts that if simply 35% of iPhone customers world wide one day put on an Apple Watch – the identical adoption share discovered within the U.S. – the Apple Watch put in base would exceed 350 million folks, which is 2 and a half occasions larger than the present consumer base.
Cybart means that Apple Watch might make much more headway if Apple opened it as much as non-iPhone customers, and means that the system’s future roles in Apple’s product line might embrace: Expanded id authentication makes use of past Macs, and most not too long ago, iPhones; advances in well being monitoring; and as a great location on the physique to dump assets linked to face-based applied sciences like good glasses.
Apple has by no means disclosed official gross sales figures for Apple Watch, and as a substitute lumps the system into its Wearables, Home, and Accessories class (beforehand often known as the “Other” class), which additionally consists of HomePod mini, and the entire AirPods fashions, together with the AirPods Max.
However, primarily based on Apple’s final incomes’s report, the class introduced in document income within the first fiscal quarter of 2021 (fourth calendar quarter), hitting $13 billion, up from $10 billion within the year-ago quarter, reflecting 30% development.